Ukraine’s D-Day May Be Coming Soon
Paul J. Warburg
27 min
Sometimes, when things seem hopeless, all you have to do is hold on and actually have courage long enough for the enemy to break themselves against their own impatience. Personally, I see that as the most likely way this war ends through political change within Russia.
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy
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Donald Trump
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Vladimir Putin
Chapters
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0:00
The D-Day Parallel
In about one month, the war in Ukraine will be exactly as old as World War II was on D-Day. This milestone highlights real parallels between the two conflicts, where both started with invasions and periods of desperation that seemed hopeless for years. Just as Germany eventually collapsed after occupying much of Europe, Russia is now facing a similar trajectory of exhaustion after failing to win quickly.
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2:21
The Aggressor's Trap
Most wars of aggression are either won very quickly or they end very badly for the side that started them. Russia planned this as a quick war that could be won in three days to three weeks but is now stuck in the aggressor's trap. They are experiencing their highest casualty rates of the entire war, only to achieve a net loss of occupied territory.
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9:42
Historical Precedents and Political Narratives
The American Revolution was a slog that lasted for over eight years, about twice as long as the war in Ukraine is currently run. For most of that war, it seemed like a completely fruitless endeavor until the British became overextended and exhausted by fighting in another country. Victory at Yorktown came 22 months after the worst winter, proving that holding on leads to victory.
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22:39
The Reality of Resources and Morale
Russia is just using more and more resources that they don't have every single day, particularly manpower. On the other hand, Ukraine is actually growing in their resources every single day with new weapon systems showing up. In fact, there's recent surveys showing that Ukrainians are the happiest they've been since the war began.
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25:08
The Likely Path to Resolution
Personally, I see that as the most likely way this war ends through political change within Russia. Historically speaking, one of the reasons that long wars do not favor aggressors is because people get tired of the war much more quickly. If political change happens in Russia, there's a reason Russia runs their political system to prevent internal dissent and coups from happening.
Key points
- 0:00
In about one month, the war in Ukraine will be exactly as old as World War II was on D-Day.
- 0:24
Most wars of aggression are either won very quickly or they end very badly for the side that started them.
- 2:45
They've begun to lose some important battles. They are experiencing their highest casualty rates of the entire war, only to achieve a net loss of occupied territory.
- 2:45
It's also becoming clear that Ukraine's ability to produce their own weapons is only growing, with new weapon systems showing up.
- 8:42
The American Revolution was, of course, far from a sweeping victory. It was a slog that lasted for over eight years.
- 18:27
Russia is still demanding the entire four regions of the Donbass, the same regions that they were demanding a year and a half ago.
- 18:27
In August of this year, it was found that if Russia were to continue their then-current rate of advancement, Russia would not capture the region of Donetsk until at least 2032.
- 22:39
In fact, there's recent surveys showing that Ukrainians are the happiest they've been since the war began.
- 23:48
Personally, I see that as the most likely way this war ends through political change within Russia.
On the map
Who and where
Places · 19
- Ukraine 52
- Russia 50
- Normandy landings 8
- Donetsk 2
- Donbas 1
- Lviv 1
- Odesa 1
- Kyiv 1
- Germany 7
- United States 7
- Yorktown 3
- France 4
- Spain 2
- Vietnam 2
- United Kingdom 2
- Kingdom of the Netherlands 1
- Afghanistan 1
- Iraq 1
- Europe 1
People · 3
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Donald Trump 7
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5
President of Ukraine since 2019
Photo 2
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Vladimir Putin 4
President of the Russian Federation
Photo 3
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
2. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)
3. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)
Organisations · 10
- Russians 12
- World War II 9
- Ukrainians 4
- Germans 3
- British Army 2
- British Empire 2
- United States Army 2
- Continental Army 1
- Parliament of the United Kingdom 1
- Prussia 1
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