Iran War Winners and Losers: North American Energy

Peter Zeihan 9 min

High oil prices will force a U.S. export ban and refinery adaptation that hurts producers short-term. The conventional wisdom that a lot of people saw in the first couple of weeks of the conflict really doesn't apply.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    North American Energy Context

    Explains the difference between U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands production methods.

  2. 1:48

    Production Cost and War Impact

    Details high production costs and the long-term unavailability of Persian Gulf and Russian oil.

  3. 3:38

    Political Risk of High Prices

    Argues that high domestic prices could lead to a ban on U.S. oil exports.

  4. 6:16

    Refinery Adaptation Challenges

    States that U.S. refineries must switch from heavy crude to light sweet crude, causing short-term stress.

Key points

  • 0:00

    U.S. shale output is at record levels and by itself is the single largest producer of crude in the world.

  • 0:00

    Canadian oil sands are very thick and heavy, sometimes solid at room temperature.

  • 1:48

    The bulk of the 22 million barrels per day that comes out of here never coming back, or at least not within a decade.

  • 3:38

    The president was given the authority... to end U.S. oil exports if market conditions argued for problems.

  • 3:38

    Most of this is actually probably going to be seen energy prices in the United States and Canada going down because, in a scenario where you can't export, we're in an environment of super saturation.

  • 6:16

    U.S. refiners for the last 30 years have steadily retooled their entire complex to run on heavy, sour, imported crude.

  • 7:29

    They're actually going to be dumbing down the refineries to run on higher quality crude.

  • 7:29

    In the long run, they'll be making more money. But they have to get to the long run first.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 3

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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