Why a Russian-Chinese Pipeline Won't Happen

Peter Zeihan 4 min

The Chinese see the Russians as backwards barbarians and the Russians see the Chinese as peasants. Whenever Putin and Xi get together, the conversation always is, hey, let's do a pipeline.

  • Xi Jinping
  • Vladimir Putin

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Mistrust Between China and Russia

    China and Russia do not love each other; they are arguably two of the most racist cultures in the world, and the culture that they're most racist against is one another. The Chinese see the Russians as backwards barbarians and the Russians see the Chinese as peasants.

  2. 0:20

    The Geographic Distance Problem

    It's simple geography. It's a distance issue. The population of Russia for the most part is hard up on the European boundary and the bulk of the Chinese population is within spitting distance of the Pacific coast, which leaves something like seven to eight thousand miles of great wide open empty in between. If you're going from European Russia to Asiatic China, you're already talking about pumping costs that are well over $80 a gallon, most likely. That's on top of the tens of billions of dollars that it would take to actually build the pipeline. The oil and natural gas that the Russians have is for the most part in the wrong place. It's almost all in northwestern Siberia, which is actually further from China than European Russia.

  3. 2:44

    The Lack of Technical Skill

    There are a few fields going out into Asiatic Siberia, places like Kovikta and Sokhalin Island. The problem here is that the Russians don't have the technical skill that's necessary to tap these fields. Whenever Putin and Xi get together, the conversation always is, hey, let's do a pipeline. And they both always say, yeah, hey, that sounds great. And then they both point at the other one and say, and you pay for it.

Key points

  • 0:20

    The Chinese see the Russians as backwards barbarians and the Russians see the Chinese as peasants.

  • 0:20

    The population of Russia for the most part is hard up on the European boundary and the bulk of the Chinese population is within spitting distance of the Pacific coast.

  • 0:20

    You're already talking about pumping costs that are well over $80 a gallon, most likely.

  • 0:20

    It's almost all in northwestern Siberia, which is actually further from China than European Russia.

  • 2:44

    The problem here is that the Russians don't have the technical skill that's necessary to tap these fields.

  • 2:44

    Whenever Putin and Xi get together, the conversation always is, hey, let's do a pipeline.

On the map

Map of the places in “Why a Russian-Chinese Pipeline Won't Happen”

Who and where

Places · 7

  • Russia 12
  • People's Republic of China 4
  • Kovykta field 2
  • Kazakhstan 1
  • Persian Gulf 1
  • Japan 1
  • Europe 1

People · 2

  • Drawing of Xi Jinping

    Xi Jinping 1

    General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party since 2012 (born 1953)

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 1

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Presidencia de la República del Ecuador, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Xi Jinping)

2. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

Organisations · 1

  • BP 3
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Bonus Video - Russia: Trump Pulls the Trigger

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Trump's current sanctions are insufficient to change Russia's view because they lack the scale and administrative capacity needed for a total embargo. The Trump administration faces significant challenges in building the government structures required to enforce effective secondary sanctions.

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