Should the U.S. Military Invade Yemen?

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The United States faces an ugly choice between a difficult military occupation or accepting Iranian control over Gulf energy. A military solution is too involved to recommend, leaving the only viable option as a political deal with Iran.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Historical Rebellion of Yemen

    Yemen is described as a mountainous region with an ornery population that has rebelled against regional powers for over 3,000 years. The terrain and water resources allow the local inhabitants to sustain themselves while resisting external control. This long history of defiance makes the country difficult for any major power to govern effectively.

  2. 2:15

    The Strategic Difficulty of Intervention

    The Houthis control territory that allows them to operate without needing coastal access, making military occupation extremely difficult. Any attempt to remove them would require fighting in the mountains against a population of 30 million people. This scenario combines the worst logistical challenges of Afghanistan and Iraq into a single conflict.

  3. 4:33

    The Regional Threat Beyond Yemen

    Iranian weapons can strike targets across the region from within Iran itself, rendering the removal of Yemen insufficient for security. Even securing Iraq would not solve the problem because Iranian forces can still operate directly from their own soil. The situation presents an ugly choice between a political deal with Iran or abandoning control of the Gulf.

Key points

  • 0:28

    Yemen has rebelled against regional powers for at least 3,000 years.

  • 0:53

    The Houthis possess enough territory to function even if the water table collapses.

  • 0:53

    Iran provides missiles and drones with a range exceeding 100 miles.

  • 0:53

    Coastal control is unnecessary because weapons can be fired from inland positions.

  • 0:53

    Removing the Houthis requires occupying a country with 30 million people.

  • 0:53

    The conflict combines the worst-case scenarios of Afghanistan and Iraq.

  • 3:04

    Iranian weapons have a range of about 600 miles covering the entire region.

  • 3:04

    Attacks can originate directly from Iran without needing bases in Yemen or Iraq.

  • 3:04

    Securing the Gulf requires physically occupying Yemen, Iraq, and Iran simultaneously.

  • 3:04

    The alternative is making a political deal with Iran to allow oil flow.

  • 3:04

    Without intervention, the Middle East cannot be controlled or influenced effectively.

On the map

Map of the places in “Should the U.S. Military Invade Yemen?”

Who and where

Places · 10

  • Yemen 10
  • Iran 10
  • Iraq 6
  • Persian Gulf 3
  • United States 3
  • Saudi Arabia 3
  • Afghanistan 2
  • Red Sea 2
  • Middle East 2
  • Arabian Peninsula 1

Organisations · 1

  • Houthis 2

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