Does China Have a Succession Plan

Peter Zeihan 6 min

If Xi dies tomorrow, there simply isn't an institution, much less a personality, who could potentially step forward and take over his role. The best case scenario is that Xi becomes the new Yeltsin or Brezhnev and remains just alive enough that he can be propped up in a chair and wave to the crowd every once in a while while everything slowly disintegrates around him.

  • Xi Jinping

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Xi Jinping's Poor Health

    Xi spent over two-thirds of his White House time recovering in a separate room with just his wife. He had very little contact with Trump, limited to dinner and short meetings. At 80 years old, staying in power for the long haul is probably a stretch.

  2. 3:48

    China's Lack of Succession Plan

    There is nobody to take over because Xi has purged competent people from the system. The bureaucracy, military, and media have had their teeth ripped out. If he dies, there isn't an institution or personality who could step forward.

  3. 4:14

    Historical Consequences of Leadership Failure

    When China loses a centralized ruler, history shows a generation of free fall, civil war, and famine. Current industrial dependency makes the population adjustment conservatively half the total population. Not one historical example looks positive.

Key points

  • 0:46

    Xi spent over two-thirds of his White House time recovering in a separate room with just his wife.

  • 1:53

    At 80 years old, staying in power for the long haul is probably a stretch.

  • 2:07

    China has historically faced breakdown when over-centralized or when regions gain too much autonomy.

  • 2:07

    Xi has purged competent people from the educational system, media, business community, military, and state apparatus.

  • 2:07

    There is no institution or personality ready to step forward and take over if Xi dies.

  • 2:07

    China is currently at the peak of its centralized power before a potential fall.

  • 2:07

    Loss of a centralized ruler historically leads to a generation of free fall, civil war, and famine.

  • 4:28

    China's current industrial and agricultural dependency makes population adjustment conservative estimates half the total population.

  • 4:28

    Information control prevents accurate reads on Xi's health or GDP numbers.

  • 5:27

    Historical examples of China losing a centralized ruler do not look positive.

On the map

Map of the places in “Does China Have a Succession Plan”

Who and where

Places · 3

  • People's Republic of China 8
  • United States 2
  • Canada 1

People · 1

  • Drawing of Xi Jinping

    Xi Jinping 1

    General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party since 2012 (born 1953)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Presidencia de la República del Ecuador, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Xi Jinping)

Organisations · 1

  • White House 2

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