The Great Oil Split Has Begun

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The United States has a functional ceiling on its energy prices of around $70 while Europe and Asia pay double or triple that amount due to transport disruptions. This fragmented market state is going to be the norm for the bulk of the next 20 years.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Canadian crudes are trading at a significant discount to other grades.

  • 0:40

    Ship-to-ship transfers double the time required to move crude from supply to demand.

  • 0:40

    Getting crude out now requires an additional $10 to $20 a barrel in compensation.

  • 2:03

    Russian sanctions force crude shipments via tankers instead of pipelines.

  • 2:03

    Russian Urals blend crude is disappearing from the market due to attacks.

  • 2:03

    New tankers will not be available before the end of the year after next.

  • 2:03

    Long-haul shipping is becoming so expensive that spreads are getting wider and wider.

  • 4:12

    The United States faces a functional ceiling on energy prices of around $70.

  • 4:12

    Europe and Northeast Asia will pay double or triple the North American price.

  • 4:12

    Over half of the world's globally traded crude is vanishing during this crisis.

On the map

Map of the places in “The Great Oil Split Has Begun”

Who and where

Places · 25

  • Persian Gulf 6
  • Iran 5
  • United States 6
  • Africa 3
  • Canada 3
  • Ukraine 4
  • Russia 4
  • Europe 3
  • Northeast Asia 2
  • South Asia 1
  • Asia 1
  • East Asia 1
  • Qatar 1
  • United Arab Emirates 1
  • Kuwait 1
  • Iraq 1
  • Saudi Arabia 1
  • Strait of Hormuz 1
  • Colombia 2
  • North Africa 2
  • Venezuela 2
  • sub-Saharan Africa 1
  • Black Sea 1
  • Red Sea 1
  • Baltic Sea 1

Organisations · 1

  • Houthis 1

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