Markets Flash Back to the Past

Peter Zeihan 8 min

Markets are ignoring permanent structural breaks because they rely on American security guarantees that no longer exist. Get ready to return to the past later this year.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Scale of Disruption

    A quarter of traded oil is gone and will not return before year-end.

  2. 0:58

    Market Ignorance

    Markets pretend peace is near despite permanent structural changes.

  3. 2:58

    Permanent Structural Breaks

    Refineries slow due to lack of feedstock, not demand destruction. Markets cannot price crude that is never produced in the first place.

  4. 5:37

    The Coming Break

    A fundamental break between ground reality and financial facsimiles is coming soon. Absolute energy scarcity will require government rationing instead of market allocation. Markets historically go to zero when their foundational security breaks.

Key points

  • 0:00

    One quarter of all internationally traded oil is gone.

  • 0:58

    Markets pretend peace is hours away despite permanent disruption.

  • 2:58

    Refineries slow operations because there is no feedstock.

  • 2:58

    Markets cannot price crude that is never produced in the first place.

  • 5:37

    A fundamental break between ground reality and financial facsimiles is coming soon.

  • 5:37

    Absolute energy scarcity will require government rationing instead of market allocation.

  • 5:37

    Markets historically go to zero when their foundational security breaks.

  • 5:37

    The world is returning to a pre-1945 state where markets vanish.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 1

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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