Ukraine
country in Eastern Europe
Named more than in passing in 49 episodes, from 30 June 2026 to 10 November 2026: Peter Zeihan 23 · Paul J. Warburg 26. Wikidata
2026 · 49 episodes
November 2026 · 9
26:22
Russia Just Declared War on...Pizza?
Paul J. Warburg
This isn't a war about weapons. It's not a war about territory.
25:17
Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin has a use-them-while-you've-got-them mentality. Once the war in Ukraine is over, it's going to seem like small cookies compared to what happens to Russia over the ensuing decades and generations.
6:05
A New Explosive Threat in the Persian Gulf
Peter Zeihan
Conventional commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf is probably going to collapse because there is no good defense against speedboat attacks. The cost for the civilian shipping sector to try to cope with this is immense and will absolutely change the cost structure of how shipping happens.
25:25
Russian Soldiers are Suddenly Being Wiped Out Like Never Before
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is experiencing a catastrophic decline where casualty rates exceed recruitment and birth rates, leading to societal collapse. The war has eliminated any hope for Russia's demographic recovery and is running its society into the ground.
22:07
Russia Just Suffered the Ultimate Humiliation
Paul J. Warburg
One of the telltale signs that somebody is broke and doing everything they can to avoid bankruptcy is when they start to sell off everything they own just to meet their monthly obligations. We'll keep watching how these trends go and where they ultimately lead.
4:58
Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots
Peter Zeihan
If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes. That's what's going on in Russia right now with the Ukraine war.
4:11
France and the UK Choose the Nuclear Option
Peter Zeihan
The UK and France are pursuing nuclear weapons to prevent Germany from feeling secure enough to build its own deterrent. Allowing Germany to develop nukes would recreate the dangerous pressure cooker of 19th-century Europe.
5:38
The Paris Accords Can't Stop Climate Change
Peter Zeihan
The Paris Accords cannot stop climate change because they lack necessary funding and rely on a globalized system that is now breaking down. By the end of the century, we need to be starting to consider things like five and maybe even six.
18:12
Russia’s Oil Nightmare Just Returned IN FORCE
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces a catastrophic financial scenario because its own data predicts oil prices will drop to $53 per barrel while it loses customers and production capacity. The point is, Russia already had their luck, and now their luck has run out.
October 2026 · 18
21:13
Ukraine Had an INCREDIBLE Night
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has demonstrated it can independently stop Russian attacks and defy US political pressure regarding energy prices. Ukraine is willing to defy the United States and prove that Trump lacks control over energy prices just before the midterms.
26:15
Ukraine’s Massive Advantage Over Russia is Now Impossible to Ignore
Paul J. Warburg
Modern democracies win wars and long-term competition because market incentives drive continuous innovation, while dictatorships stagnate due to fear of success. The future belongs to societies where youth are incentivized to build technology that solves problems rather than just seeking military salaries.
26:41
Ukraine’s D-Day May Be Coming Soon
Paul J. Warburg
Sometimes, when things seem hopeless, all you have to do is hold on and actually have courage long enough for the enemy to break themselves against their own impatience. Personally, I see that as the most likely way this war ends through political change within Russia.
6:55
How Will the Elections Impact Serbia and Brazil?
Peter Zeihan
Recent elections in Serbia and Brazil represent minor steps along a long road rather than landmark changes. No radical changes are expected in either country because they remain trapped by their specific geographic and historical constraints.
20:15
Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War
Paul J. Warburg
Pro-Russian pressure from the United States actually hurts the Russians far more than the Ukrainians, and it really does seem that Russia can't possibly do anything to win the war. It is encouraging to know that Ukraine's strategy is definitely, definitely working.
3:46
Oil Pricing Is Going Crazy
Peter Zeihan
A severe break in the security environment allows the market to function differently. By the time we get to the end of the year, unless something is resolved politically, we're going to be looking at outright breaks in supply lines.
22:01
Russia’s Tech Companies Just Entered Full Panic Mode
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is facing a permanent, systemic crisis in its cloud infrastructure that will worsen over time due to destroyed capacity and lack of global redundancy. The true scale of the damage remains hidden because both cloud companies and the Russian government suppress negative information to protect their interests.
6:18
The Great Oil Split Has Begun
Peter Zeihan
The United States has a functional ceiling on its energy prices of around $70 while Europe and Asia pay double or triple that amount due to transport disruptions. This fragmented market state is going to be the norm for the bulk of the next 20 years.
5:48
Ground Drones Hit the Frontlines in Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The emergence of ground drones makes it very difficult for any sort of projection-based military to push force somewhere else. We're not going to figure that out in six months.
19:38
China Just Got Some Terrible News
Paul J. Warburg
China is afraid of losing Western markets and will not use coercion tactics that threaten its economic survival. Today, China, which traditionally has been more adversarial, finally got a really good check put in place on them.
33:13
Why I’m Not Worried About Ukraine Losing U.S. Support
Paul J. Warburg
There are absolutely zero concerns that withdrawing U.S. support will create a catastrophe for Ukraine because the U.S. is not providing decisive aid. Public opinion creates a ceiling on how bad things can get, limiting U.S. actions against Ukraine.
18:56
Ukraine Just Sent Russia Back to the Stone Age
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is definitely now going to get left behind even further than they already were. In either case, Russia's data center problem is massive, and it's quickly growing tendrils into other areas that Russia likely never anticipated.
5:51
Defending the Homefront from Cheap Drones
Peter Zeihan
The entire industrial age needs to find a new way to operate because we are not ready for this. It is time to start noodling fast, hopefully, about what a post-drone economy can even be.
3:02
How Diesel Could Shape the Ukraine War
Peter Zeihan
If we actually go a six-month period or more where the Russians don't have enough fuel to keep their system operational from a military point of view, then we really have entered a new phase in this conflict. With the United States possibly about to remove the last remaining large supply of the global standards, that leaves the Russians completely high and dry.
20:30
Russia’s Winter From Hell is About to Begin
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's winter will be a nightmare due to logistical failures and fuel shortages, while Ukraine's morale remains resilient. Even if conditions worsen physically, Ukrainians may actually become happier due to shared adversity and community.
5:50
Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit?
Peter Zeihan
Putin may use the G20 summit to announce an invasion of a NATO country, forcing Trump to choose between Russia and the alliance. The outcome will determine if the US alliance completely shatters or remains intact.
+1
4:11
Ukraine Finally Pushes the Frontline Back
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine has reshaped battlefield tactics by using memory drones to starve Russian front lines of supplies. The tide of battle has changed significantly for Ukraine as tanks return to fight.
23:33
Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
The introduction of FP-7 and future FP-9 ballistic missiles forces Russia to reallocate air defenses and burn through interceptors on cheap drones, creating a strategic advantage for Ukraine over the next one to two years. The combination of new missile capabilities and depleted Russian defenses will fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics over the next one to two years.
September 2026 · 13
33:31
Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is unlikely to attack NATO because doing so would open a massive new front while they are already failing in Ukraine. While we should prepare in case we're wrong, we should not fear a Russian attack because it's unlikely to happen.
6:07
The Diesel Shortage Hits America
Peter Zeihan
Diesel shortages will reverberate through the entire American economy for months. The US faces guaranteed transport problems affecting everything moved throughout the country for at least the next 18 months.
37:02
Why Putin Can NEVER Use a Nuclear Weapon
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot credibly threaten nuclear war because its arsenal is likely non-functional and launching would destroy the regime. The ultimate cost of operating one of the most corrupt countries on Earth is that everything crashes in on itself.
18:54
Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is winning the war of attrition by using cheap, scalable drone swarms to overwhelm Russia's defenses, while Russia is forced into an unsustainable cycle of expensive missiles and depleted air defense systems. As Russia runs out of air defenses and concentrates them in Moscow, Ukraine will soon be able to strike targets across the Russian Arctic, Siberia, and Far East.
29:51
China's Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
The Chinese government's strict population controls created a self-reinforcing collapse where people now refuse to have children. China is likely hiding the true scale of its population decline and may eventually resort to war or internal collapse.
3:51
What Is Zelensky's Political Future?
Peter Zeihan
Zelensky's historical legacy depends on whether Russia wins, a stalemate occurs, or Ukraine wins. History is still playing out on this specific question, and we are not going to get an answer this year, or next year, or the year after that.
18:11
Ukraine Just Sparked a Panic in the Russian Arctic
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's strategy of using its massive size as a defensive advantage is now obsolete. Ukraine is unlocking the entire country, and that hunting season won't end until Russia ends its war.
11:31
What Does Life After Donald Trump Look Like?
Peter Zeihan
Trump has destroyed the Republican Party's institutional capacity and mirrors the fragile personalist regimes of China and Russia. When these leaders leave, the result will be quick and complete collapse because governance is them.
+5
18:28
Vladimir Putin Just Got the Worst Possible News
Paul J. Warburg
If your population is happy despite whatever trial they're going through, everything else around that shrinks in importance. Because they are winning.
32:42
Something Very Strange is Happening to China’s Military
Paul J. Warburg
China is a paper tiger using propaganda to appear stronger than it actually is. Investing in cheap drones can overwhelm China's expensive, unproven military image.
3:59
Ukraine Is Shooting Fish in a Barrel
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine will stop Russia's significant oil export presence by destroying the non-reporting shadow fleet. The ports will eventually run out of storage facilities, cutting down production inland just as effectively as stopping the shadow fleet.
7:30
Russia Is Struggling to Defend Its Own Capital
Peter Zeihan
The combination of fuel shortages and the risks of peripheral mobilization makes the current situation looking pretty bad for the Kremlin. The convergence of battlefield losses and social pressure from forced mobilization creates a dangerous situation for the Kremlin.
21:55
China’s Biggest Problem Just Got SO MUCH Worse
Paul J. Warburg
China's water shortage puts them at a structural disadvantage against AI competitors and increases their incentive to provoke water conflicts. China's only real solution is geopolitical, potentially involving damming rivers or bringing water from Russia.
August 2026 · 8
17:00
Satellite Images Just Revealed Something Very Strange in North Korea
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea is essentially the Hunger Games in the real world. This is how empires and kingdoms have always worked.
3:04
Relocate or Move On from the Middle East
Peter Zeihan
The United States lacks a good defense for these systems because it cannot build enough interceptors to match Iranian drone production. Moving bases to Jordan or Israel fails because Iranian drone ranges are extending daily to cover these areas, leading to a broad-scale American withdrawal from the region.
28:31
Something Utterly Bizarre Just Happened in China
Paul J. Warburg
China's technological dominance masks a fundamental weakness caused by massive debt and a lack of domestic energy resources. In the net, in China, what we see is a house of cards that is reported on as if it were a house of steel.
6:04
The U.S. Chooses Favorites: North Korea over South Korea
Peter Zeihan
The United States is abandoning South Korea, forcing it to develop nuclear weapons and triggering a regional arms race. The strategic balance of peace in Northeast Asia is ending because South Korea will likely build a nuclear weapon.
9:10
The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits - Part 2
Peter Zeihan
The world is shifting from free international waterways to regulated choke points where local powers charge tolls and restrict global trade. This shift creates a new global order where nations near these straits hold immense leverage over energy and commerce.
4:51
Ukraine's Flamingos Crush Russia's Space Program
Peter Zeihan
Russia is losing its technological power and becoming dependent on China while Ukraine destroys its industry. Russia will likely lose its ability to export resources from the Black and Baltic Seas before year's end.
42:34
The U.S. National Debt Just Reached a Bleak Milestone
Paul J. Warburg
The U.S. debt is not a solvable problem because it funds the economy, and the real risk is inflation from printing money. We must focus on the complex system as a whole rather than just the symptoms like high debt numbers.
6:33
Moving Beyond the Patriot Missile
Peter Zeihan
The United States must overhaul its defense strategy because deglobalization and Ukrainian innovation render current advanced systems unsustainable. The US will soon stop delivering Patriots, accelerating global anti-ballistic missile technology research.
June 2026 · 1
4:18
Ukraine Starts Cracking Open the Occupied Territories
Peter Zeihan
Russian authorities have suspended all fuel purchases for all civilians whether it's personal cars or businesses. The Russian position across the entire southern parts of the occupied territories is really falling apart.