Vladimir Putin
President of the Russian Federation
Named in 168 episodes, from 18 June 2024 to 10 November 2026: Peter Zeihan 24 · Paul J. Warburg 144. Wikidata
2026 · 76 episodes
2025 · 79 episodes
2024 · 13 episodes
November 2026 · 3
26:22
Russia Just Declared War on...Pizza?
Paul J. Warburg
This isn't a war about weapons. It's not a war about territory.
25:17
Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin has a use-them-while-you've-got-them mentality. Once the war in Ukraine is over, it's going to seem like small cookies compared to what happens to Russia over the ensuing decades and generations.
22:07
Russia Just Suffered the Ultimate Humiliation
Paul J. Warburg
One of the telltale signs that somebody is broke and doing everything they can to avoid bankruptcy is when they start to sell off everything they own just to meet their monthly obligations. We'll keep watching how these trends go and where they ultimately lead.
October 2026 · 6
26:41
Ukraine’s D-Day May Be Coming Soon
Paul J. Warburg
Sometimes, when things seem hopeless, all you have to do is hold on and actually have courage long enough for the enemy to break themselves against their own impatience. Personally, I see that as the most likely way this war ends through political change within Russia.
20:15
Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War
Paul J. Warburg
Pro-Russian pressure from the United States actually hurts the Russians far more than the Ukrainians, and it really does seem that Russia can't possibly do anything to win the war. It is encouraging to know that Ukraine's strategy is definitely, definitely working.
5:06
The End of Black Sea Shipping
Peter Zeihan
The escalation of naval drone warfare will shut down the Black Sea within days, crippling exports for both Russia and Ukraine. This shutdown represents a major economic hit to both sides as all cargo must now go out by rail through neighboring countries.
5:50
Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit?
Peter Zeihan
Putin may use the G20 summit to announce an invasion of a NATO country, forcing Trump to choose between Russia and the alliance. The outcome will determine if the US alliance completely shatters or remains intact.
+1
31:48
Russia's Banks are Now Preparing for Sudden Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has entered an economic trap eerily similar to Nazi Germany towards the end of World War II. Russia is destroying its economic future by continuously degrading its system into a slow-moving car crash with no growth.
4:11
Ukraine Finally Pushes the Frontline Back
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine has reshaped battlefield tactics by using memory drones to starve Russian front lines of supplies. The tide of battle has changed significantly for Ukraine as tanks return to fight.
September 2026 · 5
33:31
Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is unlikely to attack NATO because doing so would open a massive new front while they are already failing in Ukraine. While we should prepare in case we're wrong, we should not fear a Russian attack because it's unlikely to happen.
37:02
Why Putin Can NEVER Use a Nuclear Weapon
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot credibly threaten nuclear war because its arsenal is likely non-functional and launching would destroy the regime. The ultimate cost of operating one of the most corrupt countries on Earth is that everything crashes in on itself.
29:51
China's Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
The Chinese government's strict population controls created a self-reinforcing collapse where people now refuse to have children. China is likely hiding the true scale of its population decline and may eventually resort to war or internal collapse.
11:31
What Does Life After Donald Trump Look Like?
Peter Zeihan
Trump has destroyed the Republican Party's institutional capacity and mirrors the fragile personalist regimes of China and Russia. When these leaders leave, the result will be quick and complete collapse because governance is them.
+5
4:28
Why a Russian-Chinese Pipeline Won't Happen
Peter Zeihan
The Chinese see the Russians as backwards barbarians and the Russians see the Chinese as peasants. Whenever Putin and Xi get together, the conversation always is, hey, let's do a pipeline.
August 2026 · 6
Something Very Strange is Starting in Russia's Far East
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is quietly making historical concessions to its neighboring nations due to weakness from war. The scale of weakness, dependence, and concessions is only growing as Russia continues to run lower on men.
Japan Just Suddenly Became Russia’s Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is provoking Japan over the Kuril Islands to appease China, which could backfire by pushing Japan to support Ukraine. Japan already knows that to allow Russian aggression to go unanswered is to invite more aggression.
Russia’s economy just screamed for help. No one answered.
Paul J. Warburg
Three ordinary Russians experience the economy very differently. A Russian plumber finds more work and higher income now than before.
The Events That Caused World War II Are Now In Motion Again (nobody believed it then either)
Paul J. Warburg
Current world leaders are repeating the exact same mistakes and failed strategies as those who led to World War II. World leaders must choose a different path rather than repeating failed strategies out of fear.
What Everyone Is Getting Wrong About Russia’s Ballistic Missile Surge
Paul J. Warburg
Headlines exaggerate Ukraine's vulnerability by ignoring the scale of the crisis and failing to put it in context, leading viewers to incorrect conclusions about an existential threat. Russia is playing a desperate short-term game that creates long-term vulnerabilities, whereas Ukraine holds the superior strategic position for the long haul.
Russia’s Elites are FED UP With Putin About Ukrainian Strikes
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's elites are actively working against Vladimir Putin because Ukraine's strikes threaten their personal fortunes. As Ukraine's threats increase, Russia is fracturing into competing factions that may eventually turn on Putin.
July 2026 · 12
Putin’s Worst Nightmare Just Hit Russia's Banks
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's banking system is collapsing because it cannot borrow money while being forced to fund a losing war. Ukraine's strikes on Wildberries are actively accelerating this banking crisis and could cause the whole thing to blow up.
Russia's New Recruitment Crisis is Next Level Incompetence
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot fix its core problems because it lacks willing technical experts and relies on desperate tactics that fail against an innovative Ukrainian society. Ukraine will be victorious because its innovative capabilities and defensive preparations overwhelm Russia's desperate mobilization efforts.
Russia Had a DEVASTATING Week
Paul J. Warburg
Striking Wildberries facilities disrupts Russia's ability to mobilize and equip new soldiers while causing unprecedented economic chaos. The war now has a real cost on every Russian citizen and the entire supporting system.
France Just Dealt Russia a DEVASTATING Blow
Paul J. Warburg
Countries are positioning themselves within Ukraine's future sphere of influence rather than trying to control Ukraine. Ukraine will hold power over other countries dependent on its weapons supplies.
Satellite Imagery Just Confirmed Putin's Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's removal of air defenses from strategic bases proves it is bluffing about attacking NATO. Russia is decisively losing the war due to an air defense shortage it cannot fix.
Russia Just Got Some TERRIBLE News
Paul J. Warburg
There is a mathematical upper limit to the damage Russia can cause, which is insufficient to force Ukraine to capitulate. Ukraine is nowhere close to losing this war, and every country that has fought for its independence has found the cost worth it.
What’s the REAL Reason Zelensky Just Dismissed Ukraine’s Defense Minister?
Paul J. Warburg
The dismissal likely results from a strategic leadership conflict rather than corruption. Viewers should exercise critical thinking and give leaders the benefit of the doubt until the war ends.
The Situation on Crimea Has Become Truly Insane
Paul J. Warburg
Crimea has become uninhabitable due to fuel, electricity, water, and food shortages, forcing a collapse into a barter economy. Putin faces a massive defeat as he cannot admit the crisis while citizens flee and Ukraine proves it can reclaim Crimea using robots.
Russia Has Gone Completely Insane
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has entered a self-feeding cycle of fuel shortages, chaos, and rebellion that is destroying societal norms. The crisis will likely continue to get worse through winter, causing economic collapse and threatening survival for many Russians.
Russia is Threatening to “Use the Nukes” Again (lol)
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's nuclear threats are fear tactics designed to manipulate Western behavior rather than genuine intentions to use them. The incentive structure in Russia actually prevents a nuclear strike, making the threats a manipulation of fear.
Russian Society is Completely Unraveling
Paul J. Warburg
Russian society is completely unraveling due to widespread dissatisfaction, elite dissent, and historical precedents for disintegration. Something dramatic really could happen in Russia, potentially destroying Putin's legacy and country.
Russia is Completely Folding Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's air defenses have never been weaker, and they continue to get weaker every single day. Right now, the war is going in a very, very clear direction.
June 2026 · 13
Russia’s Military Has Begun Abandoning the Front Lines
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is being forced into a trap where protecting cities leaves the front lines vulnerable, leading to inevitable abandonment. The situation is not good for Russia because even moving air defense systems to Moscow might not make a difference there.
Putin's Closest Ally Just Betrayed Him
Paul J. Warburg
Lukashenko's military buildup is intended to protect his regime and internal power rather than to attack Ukraine. It is more likely that Lukashenko is preparing for a potential attack by Ukraine to maintain his power.
Ukraine Just Warned ALL Russians to FLEE Crimea (while they still can)
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is using fuel shortages and logistical denial to force Russian citizens to flee Crimea and undermine Putin's legacy. This strategy creates circumstances in the future that will allow Ukraine to take their territory back from Russia.
Ukraine Just Triggered a MASSIVE Fuel Crisis in Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is strategically targeting civilian fuel supplies to pressure Putin and worsen Russia's long-term economic decline. The trend indicates the situation will deteriorate further in the coming years.
Something BIG is Brewing in Chechnya Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is facing a massive potential crisis in Chechnya, but it's not just Chechnya, let me remind you. This crisis could easily expand to the North Caucasus, to several different republics, just as it did after the First Chechen War.
The Belarus Situation is Becoming a BIG Problem for Putin
Paul J. Warburg
Lukashenko's shift from claiming Russian victory to admitting Russian defeat shows he is hedging his bets against a collapsing Russia. Russia has already lost Belarus as a loyal partner because Lukashenko now prioritizes his own safety over the union state agreement.
Russia Just Lost Their Most Important Leader (more important than Putin)
Paul J. Warburg
Nabulina's disappearance signals that her inflation-curing policies have failed, forcing Russia toward a desperate total war economy. Russia is likely trying to push its central banker out of the way to pave the path forward towards escalation and total war.
Putin's Response to Armenia's Election Was Absolutely INSANE
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine completely backfired, accomplishing exactly the opposite of increasing Russia's influence in the world. Russia has already lost its international influence and failed their major objective, now just holding on for the sake of their pride.
Putin is FURIOUS as Elite Russian Soldiers Flee Their Positions
Paul J. Warburg
It proves how Ukraine can force Russian soldiers out of their positions, which doesn't have to be through direct military action. So no matter how we slice it, this is a very, very encouraging development.
Russia is Preparing to Sacrifice 1,000,000 More Men
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is preparing to sacrifice up to one million more men in a desperate, futile attempt to win a war it cannot win. The mobilization represents a needless waste of human life.
The Situation in Crimea is Spiraling Out of Control
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is executing a brilliant social and psychological warfare strategy by concentrating shortages in Crimea. This campaign will lead to a Russian exodus from Crimea and accelerate dissatisfaction with the war.
The Ukraine War is About to Get MUCH Worse for Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The war is becoming more of a disaster for Russia every single day. There's a reason that President Zelensky, just a couple days before I recorded this video, sent a letter to Vladimir Putin taunting him, essentially saying exactly that, saying that Ukraine is ready for peace talks whenever Russia is.
Putin Just Had His Worst Day of the Entire War
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is caught in a trap where it must continue an expensive war to prevent economic collapse. The strike on the oil terminal was the best return on investment move Ukraine has made.
May 2026 · 5
Russia Just Made The Most Desperate Move I've Ever Seen
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin is making desperate moves by plundering bank debts because he has no other options left. Vladimir Putin is choosing to make a banking crisis worse by asking citizens to join the war instead of addressing the cause.
Russia's Worst Nightmare Just Happened to Crimea
Paul J. Warburg
Sieging Crimea forces civilians to flee across the bridge, exposing the war's failure to Russian society. This strategy could lead to a movement in Russian society to get rid of Putin.
Russia Just Sold Their Entire Future to China
Paul J. Warburg
China is exploiting Russia's desperation by extracting massive discounts on resources while selling goods at inflated prices, turning Russia into a resource vassal that ultimately benefits China. Russia has effectively become a modern resource vassal where its resources ultimately benefit China, and this dynamic will likely only get worse.
Russia’s Front Lines Have Never Looked Worse
Paul J. Warburg
The situation on the front lines of the war in Ukraine has never looked worse for Russia. This is a trend that is going in a very clear direction.
The Situation in Moscow is CRAZY Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Putin is terrified of internal dissent and the optics of defeat, forcing him to weaken Russia's overall strength to protect Moscow. This situation creates a massive opportunity for Ukraine to exploit Russia's vulnerabilities.
April 2026 · 7
Ukraine Just Humiliated Russia in the Best Possible Way
Paul J. Warburg
The approved loan represents a decisive defeat of Russia on the political and economic fronts. This moment marks a decisive shift comparable to the American Revolution and World War II.
Putin’s Own Propagandists are Now Preparing Russia for Defeat
Paul J. Warburg
The situation in Russia is seriously deteriorating, and it's deteriorating quickly. Things in Russia are developing in the direction of a revolution.
A New Era in Hungary: Orbán Gets the Boot
Peter Zeihan
Hungary's election of a pro-European government removes a major obstacle to European unity, but Slovakia's continued alignment with Russia prevents full consensus. The new Hungarian government will quickly restore European norms, yet Slovakia remains a persistent barrier to complete unity.
Russia is pursuing an INSANE new plan…it involves Belarus
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is likely building infrastructure in Belarus as a feint to distract Ukraine and control narratives rather than planning an immediate invasion. Ukraine remains not out of the woods and needs sustained support through purchasing goods from Ukrainian businesses.
MAGA – Breaking Up Is Hard
Peter Zeihan
Russia is using extreme right-wing figures to break the American political system by targeting the now-dominant MAGA movement, which Trump fails to recognize. MAGA faces the end as a unified political force.
Putin’s Paranoia is Getting Out of Control
Paul J. Warburg
Regimes only criminalize listening when they know they are no longer capable of winning the argument. The implementation of these new repressive strategies indicates an underlying problem within Russian society that will grow over time.
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
Peter Zeihan
The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
March 2026 · 9
Russian Soldiers are Suddenly Being Wiped Out Like Never Before
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is losing more soldiers than it can replace while gaining no territory, leading to an unsustainable attrition crisis. Things eventually really could come to a tipping point where Russia actually just loses its ability to wage war.
Ukraine is Planning Something MASSIVE
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is presenting Russia with a massive dilemma where responding creates gaps elsewhere, and not responding leaves critical assets exposed. The chaos itself may be the desired outcome for Ukraine to grind down Russia over time.
Something INSANE is Happening in Moscow Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
The need to control information and surround yourself with an abnormal amount of security, an abnormal amount of police and soldiers, is not a sign of strength. It's actually a sign of weakness.
Why Russians are Panicking About the War in Iran - with Professor Gerdes
Paul J. Warburg
America First policies weaken the U.S. reserve currency status and create power vacuums for rivals like China. The world is heading toward a more chaotic place where conflicts continue in different formats due to unchanging human nature.
Putin Has NEVER Looked This Terrified - with Professor Gerdes
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is trapped in a strategic siege and will likely collapse internally due to economic strain and fear of rebellion. The war will likely end not on the battlefield but through an economic collapse in Russia that forces a political change.
The U.S. Helps India and Russia Helps Iran
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration granted India temporary waivers to import Russian crude after Persian Gulf supplies were cut off. Meaningful policy change will not occur until pro-Russian advisors like Witkoff and Gabbard are removed.
The War in Iran is Hurting Russia More Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
This war is extremely bad news for Russia. The cons for Russia are vastly understated and much more durable in terms of timeframe.
The FULL Story on the Iran War That You Aren’t Being Told
Paul J. Warburg
The US is attacking Iran primarily to achieve regime change rather than just stopping nuclear development. While a long war could hurt the global economy and briefly help Russia, Ukraine gains strategic leverage by providing essential air defense technology.
Russia is Now Actively Preparing for Financial Catastrophe
Paul J. Warburg
Often, the harder someone works to appear wealthy on the outside, the poorer that person actually is in reality. It means that eventually Russia will be forced into a position of massive inflation, far higher than anything they've experienced.
February 2026 · 6
Russia is Absolutely PANICKING About Europe’s €90 Billion Loan to Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
Europe's €90 billion loan structure is strategically brilliant because it guarantees Ukraine long-term funding while creating future leverage over Russian leaders through frozen assets. This strategic approach is good news for ending the war.
Russia’s Military Has Hit a New Wall That They CAN'T Overcome
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is permanently losing competence and capabilities that they need to be effective. There will be a rather dramatic swing over the course of this year where Russia will look less and less effective on the battlefield, and there will be really no structural way for them to overcome that.
If Russia collapses…what happens next?
Paul J. Warburg
Claims that Russia can never collapse as a result of their war against Ukraine are the most speculative idea of all. There are strong reasons once you understand the internal makeup of Russia to see that people might actually want to split away from that country.
Russia's Leadership is Now Actively Preparing for Defeat in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's leadership is actively preparing for defeat by prioritizing internal control over military victory. The regime is paralyzed by fear of its own people, making it paranoid rather than strong.
Russia Just Declared War On My Channel
Paul J. Warburg
Russia uses disinformation to keep Western societies disengaged and apathetic rather than unified against them. Russia fears truth and unity, proving that light overcomes darkness.
The End of Nuclear Arms Control
Peter Zeihan
The end of US-Russia arms control guarantees a new era of massive global nuclear proliferation. This trend of country after country building nuclear weapons will last for at least the next 15 years.
January 2026 · 4
This Trump Move Was Easy to Miss — But It Explains a Lot
Paul J. Warburg
The administration is internally weak and panicked, pursuing short-term political gains through harmful policies to secure power before midterms. The administration feels nervous about its approval ratings and is pursuing long-term damage to hang on to short-term power.
Russia Just Reached Its Worst Tipping Point Yet
Paul J. Warburg
The Russian military has reached its peak size and is now shrinking because it cannot replace losses faster than they occur. Ukraine does not need to be forced into a peace deal earlier than they're ready.
Venezuela's End: Peter Goes Squirrel Killin'
Peter Zeihan
The US action against Venezuela was not a dress rehearsal for attacking Iran or other nations. The US will likely pursue a muscular policy toward Iran, but not through direct regime removal.
This is ALREADY Russia's Worst Year Yet
Paul J. Warburg
2026 is already Russia's worst year yet because accumulated attrition, budget deficits, manpower shortages, and new Ukrainian fortifications make victory impossible. Ukraine will be in a better strategic position at the end of the year despite enduring warfare.
December 2025 · 9
This May Be the Worst News Putin Has Ever Gotten
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine's new extensive fortifications shift the war's initiative to Kyiv, making Russian victory impossible and forcing negotiations. Russia will eventually reach a point where they can go no further, allowing Ukraine to say you shall not pass.
Putin Just Suffered ANOTHER Crippling Blow
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is suffering battlefield catastrophes where there is not a similar action happening on the other side, making this a uniquely Ukrainian advantage. Long story short, this was a big event for Ukraine.
Putin Just Got Some REALLY Bad News
Paul J. Warburg
Europe's decision to finally fund a $90 billion loan for Ukraine is actually genius. This really does guarantee a Ukrainian victory so long as it keeps up.
Ukraine Never Ceases to Amaze Me
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is not losing the war; historical trends show defenders win if they wait long enough for aggressors to exhaust their resources. Ukraine must wait to outlast the enemy, as Russia is progressively weaker and Ukraine is progressively stronger.
Russia’s Point of No Return is Closer Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Today, in the modern day, Russia looks very powerful on paper, but the reality is that they are getting quite close to the end of their actual resources. The reality is that Russia is almost out of gold.
Yes, Russia is Really Running Out of Money
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is economically desperate and fundamentally weak because it is forced to cut military pay and sell gold reserves. Russia is clearly economically desperate and its strategy for solvency is failing as it undermines its own long-term power.
Russia Just Reached a Critical Tipping Point
Paul J. Warburg
Putin's strategy of paying soldiers has collapsed, forcing him toward conscription that threatens his regime. The longer Ukraine holds its ground, the worse things get for Russia as recruitment fails.
Ukraine Just Unleashed a Secret Weapon Behind Russia’s Front Lines
Paul J. Warburg
Russia will lose the war in Ukraine if it devolves into an insurgency phase, just as the Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan. The only practical way to end this war is for Ukraine to fully retake its territory and restabilize it.
Ukraine is Now Striking Russia’s Shadow Fleet
Paul J. Warburg
The decisive front is economic warfare that targets leadership and citizens, not territorial battles or soldier losses. Ukraine is winning strategically by targeting the economy while media focuses on combat zones that produce no meaningful results.
November 2025 · 3
Why Russia Is Desperately Selling Off Its Gold
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is selling gold to oligarchs because its war chest is gone and it cannot fund the war anymore. The Russian regime will likely fall as it runs out of money and soldiers to continue the conflict.
What Everyone Gets Wrong About China Invading Taiwan
Paul J. Warburg
Threatening invasion benefits China politically while actual invasion brings only costs. The actual danger to Taiwan is not military invasion but a long-term propaganda campaign.
Russia Does NOT Want You to Know the Truth About Their Nukes
Paul J. Warburg
Russia uses nuclear threats as propaganda to avoid conventional war rather than intending actual use. Russia's bluffing creates global instability by encouraging other dictators to seek nuclear weapons.
October 2025 · 8
Bonus Video - Russia: Trump Pulls the Trigger
Peter Zeihan
Trump's current sanctions are insufficient to change Russia's view because they lack the scale and administrative capacity needed for a total embargo. The Trump administration faces significant challenges in building the government structures required to enforce effective secondary sanctions.
Russia’s Oil Crisis Keeps Getting So Much Worse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is implementing price caps on gasoline to shift blame for shortages onto business owners rather than taking responsibility for economic collapse. The government fears its people and knows that forcing them to feel the war's costs could lead to revolution.
Ukraine’s Military is Becoming INSANELY Powerful
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine has completely changed the future for all of humanity. We have a chance to use them to our benefit.
I’ve Never Seen Russia Look This Vulnerable
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is entering winter completely unprepared for energy and logistics, making General Winter a source of vulnerability rather than invincibility. The inability to prevent all problems will lead many Russian people to become upset with Vladimir Putin and realize the actual cost of the war.
I’ve Never Seen Putin This Paranoid
Paul J. Warburg
When you start lashing out in paranoia against every potential opponent, what you reveal is you actually don't believe yourself to be that powerful. Coups are not the exception to the historical rules, but rather, coups tend to be the natural outworking of these types of systems.
Putin's Favorite Puppet State is About to Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Dictators destroying themselves in their quest to hold on to power. The very mechanisms that Putin and Lukashenko used to hold on to their power ultimately led to their demise.
A Break for Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The potential provision of precision targeting information could destroy Russia's primary income source and force allies to stop subsidizing the war. Once the intel is provided, for every day that it is there, the Ukrainians will definitely be striking, leading to a dramatic change in the course of the war.
Russia's 'Dutch Disease' Just Became Fatal
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's economy is fatally diseased by Dutch disease, which will cause it to collapse. Russia must end the war immediately because command economies cannot recover from this structural weakness.
September 2025 · 9
Siberia Now Wants to Secede From Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine has created conditions where Eastern Russian republics may break away from Moscow, potentially turning to China for protection. If China decides to step in and offer protection to independence movements, it could be the catalyst that triggers the breakup of Russia.
Russia's New Crisis Could Be Their Worst One Yet
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is playing a long game by destroying air defense systems faster than Russia can replace them, forcing Moscow to abandon distant regions to protect its own elite. Ukraine must keep executing this winning strategy to show Russia that attacking a free people whose homes and families are at stake will not succeed.
Russia’s Energy Crisis is MUCH Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure create an unsolvable dilemma for Russia between funding the war and keeping its people alive. Russia is heading into a very rough winter with guaranteed downstream effects.
Russia's Attack On Poland Did NOT Go As Planned
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's recent incursions into Poland and Romania were a failed strategy designed to provoke NATO into reducing support for Ukraine. European leaders have responded by investing in Ukrainian interceptor drones, actively hurting Russia's strategy instead of helping it.
Russians Are Becoming FURIOUS About Putin’s War
Paul J. Warburg
The idea that the Russian people are too resilient and strong to ever quit or demand changes from their government is completely wrong. We need to stop believing in the myth of Russian invincibility.
Russia is QUICKLY Losing its Ability to Wage War
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has lost the ability to wage war in the traditional sense and must switch to terrorizing Ukrainian cities. The Western world needs to recognize Ukraine's strength and give them what is needed to continue fighting for as long as possible.
Russia’s New Strategy Has ALREADY Failed
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has exhausted all strategic options after repeatedly failing and returning to the drawing board. Russia has gone back to the drawing board so many times that, in my opinion, it's now completely scribbled over.
Ukraine's New Flamingo Missiles Are ALREADY Crushing Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The Flamingo missile gives Ukraine the ability to paralyze the Russian economy and force negotiations without Western aid. Russia is left with no good options as any choice to reduce impact in one area increases it in another.
Russia Just Fell for China’s Biggest Trick Yet
Paul J. Warburg
The relationship between Russia and China is one of convenience where China uses Russia to weaken itself and secure cheap energy for future goals. When it comes to the nature of China actually being able to help Russia and actually wanting to help Russia, what you need to look at are not the nice words that China and Russia throw at each other, but rather the actual concrete realities of how energy physically moves across physical territory.
August 2025 · 13
Ukraine Has Found Russia’s BIGGEST Weakness
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin recently and quite accidentally revealed his greatest weakness and the thing that he is actually the most afraid of. This is definitely a step in the right direction.
The Alaska Summit: Putin and Trump Talk War
Peter Zeihan
The US must use forceful military action because diplomatic arguments fail to address Russia's existential drive for border security. Trump will face a flat refusal or lies from Putin and must decide on forceful action.
There’s BIG Chatter of a Coup in Moscow
Paul J. Warburg
Putin's paranoia about a coup is likely causing him to make decisions that will ultimately lead to his downfall. His paranoid actions betray a lack of confidence and suggest he is not winning the war.
Russia is Running Out of Russians
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has essentially already ceased to be a relevant global power, because their demographic crisis has now reached the point of no return. Because they focused so much on old world imperial ideology, their empire will crumble.
Trump Wants a Second Opinion on Labor Statistics
Peter Zeihan
Trump's attack on statisticians destroys U.S. data integrity and mirrors Hugo Chavez's destruction of Venezuela. The administration will continue to function only if advisors stop speaking truth to power.
Why Russia’s Manpower Situation is FAR Worse Than Ukraine’s
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine does not have a manpower shortage because its lower recruitment numbers are offset by Russia's much higher casualty rates. Ukraine will not run out of soldiers as long as it maintains its current defensive tactics and Russia continues its high-casualty offensive strategy.
5,000 Years of Military History Predict Russia's Defeat in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
In every metric that actually matters, Ukraine has the momentum, not Russia. The point is, Ukraine is gaining momentum towards victory at the same moments that Russia is gaining momentum towards ultimate defeat.
Putin Just Accidentally Revealed The Quickest Way to Defeat Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is economically irrelevant because it lacks manufacturing and relies on fair-weather allies for trade. Global nations can now use secondary sanctions to completely isolate and defeat Russia.
Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 2
Peter Zeihan
Russia views this war as its last chance to survive and has more nukes than the US, making it dangerous to leave them unchecked. Trump is now directing policy against Putin after realizing he was being lied to, though the specific outcome remains uncertain.
Russia’s Moral Decay is FAR Worse Than You've Been Told
Paul J. Warburg
The belief that Russia is a morally superior society fighting against Western decadence is a pervasive myth used to justify immoral acts. When Russia says that they are a highly moral society fighting against the evil of the West, there's zero truth to it.
Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 1
Peter Zeihan
The war happened because of how the Russians view their world. This is just the next phase of Putin's plan, of the Russian plan, that, if anything, was written 500 years ago.
Ukraine Just Humiliated Russia in the Worst Possible Way
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has humiliated Russia by stealing plans for new nuclear submarines, crippling its ability to project power and making its nuclear threats null and void. Ukraine is a good strategic ally who provides unique value by offering intelligence only culturally similar nations can access.
The Siege of Crimea Has Already Begun…but nobody’s talking about it
Paul J. Warburg
The siege of Crimea has already begun and Russia is willing to abandon the peninsula under sufficient pressure. Ukraine can and will take Crimea when the time is right, destroying whatever remains of Vladimir Putin's legacy.
July 2025 · 14
A Tsunami Just Crippled Russia's Nuclear Fleet
Paul J. Warburg
A magnitude 8.8 earthquake, followed by a tsunami and volcanic eruption, has destroyed Russia's primary nuclear base in the Pacific. The simultaneous destruction of religious justification and nuclear threats removes Russia's main propaganda tools against the United States.
Russia is QUICKLY Descending Into Anarchy
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is descending into anarchy as the collapse of its police forces creates a self-feeding cycle of crime and vigilante justice that threatens the government's survival. The ongoing war against Ukraine makes a successful coup more likely as the government loses internal control and fails to protect its citizens.
What happens if the war doesn’t end soon?
Paul J. Warburg
Ignoring Ukraine's crisis now will cause catastrophic failure later. The world needs leaders who are long-term strategic thinkers who think through cause and effect, who understand where things can lead, and who take active steps to solve those problems.
What Happens After Trump and Putin Split?
Peter Zeihan
Donald Trump must either dedicate his entire presidency to the Ukraine issue or rebuild a competent government staff to avoid disastrous national security decisions. The current administration's lack of competent staff and reliance on uninformed advisors prevents effective policy implementation.
+1
We Need to Talk About "NATO Expansion"
Paul J. Warburg
Russia invented a lie about NATO expansion to justify its invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's aggressive actions are the true cause of NATO expansion and war.
Trump and Putin Split, Ukraine Gets Aid Again
Peter Zeihan
Trump's potential overreaction could trigger erratic military and economic policies that cause long-term problems. These actions will fall under the category of things that you wish for don't always go the way that you were hoping.
Putin No Longer Trusts His Own Soldiers…that’s worse than you think
Paul J. Warburg
Putin fears his own returning soldiers more than the war itself, driving him to prolong the conflict. Peace is unlikely unless Russia is actually defeated in the war.
The Highs and Lows of Burgum's Energy Strategy
Peter Zeihan
The shift to fossil fuels is driven by economic necessity and a specific geopolitical strategy against Russia. The current foreign policy team lacks competence, making the pragmatic energy strategy even more critical despite its long timeline.
Why Russia hasn't actually collapsed...yet
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's survival depends on a finite war chest that was originally meant for post-victory prosperity but is now exhausted. Russia cannot fight forever because its financial reserves are depleting and it lacks the resources to sustain the conflict indefinitely.
Russia is Trapped in Their War…and the implications are terrifying
Paul J. Warburg
Leaders incapable of admitting defeat will gamble away their people's resources and lives. The war will not end until Russia is actually defeated and Vladimir Putin is out of power.
STOP Believing This LIE About Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is not the Soviet Union. It's much worse.
Finally, a Productive NATO Summit
Peter Zeihan
Europeans must manage Donald Trump by flattering him to secure necessary defense commitments. If Europeans figure out how to play the game, the Russians are in a pickle.
Something is Going DEEPLY Wrong in Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Putin is admitting to concessions because he fears his people and realizes the war effort is already coming to an end. The outcome depends on whether Ukraine can continue to hold on until those cracks have their ultimate effect.
History Tells Us How the Ukraine War Could End (it's worse than you think)
Paul J. Warburg
We must stop assuming aggressors are reasonable and force them to collapse to end the war. History proves that avoiding hard decisions now leads to catastrophic failure later.
June 2025 · 2
Israel’s Uncertain Endgame in Iran
Peter Zeihan
If there is going to be a meaningful regime change, if Iran is going to enter a fundamentally different governing age, it's going to have to be a revolution. It is unclear from my point of view if Donald Trump is falling for it yet.
Russia’s Economic Crisis is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's economy is extremely weak because it is built on an extremely shaky foundation. Russia has self-inflicted all of these problems by choosing war over working its own field.
May 2025 · 2
How Germany is Becoming Russia's Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
Germany had now reached a turning point and that Germany would be investing in becoming the most capable conventional military in all of Europe. And when Germany begins to move away from its traditionally fiscally conservative stance to do this, it shows you that Germany fully understands the threat that the world faces and they fully understand that that threat is real.
A Concerning Update to the Russian Reach Series
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration has created a security crisis by replacing independent oversight with officials who spread Russian propaganda. The speaker leaves everyone to their own recognizance as to what is going to happen next.
April 2025 · 3
Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's state of decline is still going to continue regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. When we are having social problems within our own countries, we need to be very alert and very careful that politicians don't come in and start directing our attention towards external opponents.
The Roman Empire Reveals How Russia Will Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
The better that Russia looks like Rome, it actually shows that they are accelerating the path towards their own collapse. Putin is keeping this war going, even though it's bad for Russia, because for him personally, it is key to his survival.
You Mess with the Don, You Get the Tariffs
Peter Zeihan
Secondary tariffs on crude oil buyers could force China out of the electronics supply chain. We are definitely moving into a deglobalized world and need different tools than we have used for eighty years.
March 2025 · 5
Why Trump CAN'T Stop Russia's Economic Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Removing US sanctions would be irrelevant because Europe controls trade routes, Ukraine can stop exports, and Russia's economy is already collapsing from internal failures. Donald Trump will not remove sanctions because it would be unpopular, offer no benefit, and undermine his goal of increasing US energy revenues.
The EU FINALLY Called Putin’s Bluff
Paul J. Warburg
A Ukrainian victory over Russia is already assured if defensive warfare and economic warfare are pursued consistently for a long term. The European Union is finally taking steps to accelerate support, denying Putin's ceasefire demands while securing Ukraine's path to victory.
Why Elon Musk CAN’T Shut Down Ukraine’s Starlink
Paul J. Warburg
Elon Musk will not cut off Starlink access because doing so would damage his business interests more than any potential gain from aligning with Russia. Even if Starlink were removed, Ukraine has multiple alternative communication methods available, including other satellite providers, high-altitude balloons, government networks, and fiber optic cables.
What everyone is missing about Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal
Paul J. Warburg
A proposed ceasefire is a lose-lose dilemma for Russia designed to expose their desperation or weakness. The proposal is not genuine peace but a political maneuver that benefits Ukraine's reputation regardless of Russia's choice.
What everyone missed about Trump & Zelenskyy’s fight
Paul J. Warburg
The interaction is described as one of the biggest failures in diplomacy in history. The conversation began cordially but disintegrated halfway through when Zelensky was interrupted.
+1
February 2025 · 7
Why is North Korea Already Sending More Troops to Ukraine?
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea sending additional troops reveals a logical inconsistency in Russia's approach to escalation. The small troop shipment shows both Russia and North Korea are in a far more desperate position than estimated.
Did Trump Just Betray Ukraine?
Paul J. Warburg
Trump is using a bulldozing negotiation tactic to extract rare earth metals from Ukraine, creating conditions to blame them if the deal fails. Ultimately, we have to come down on the side of Ukraine because these rare earth metals are going to help in our fight against China when it comes to AI and building chips and things like that.
What everyone is getting wrong about Trump’s Ukraine peace talks
Paul J. Warburg
Peace in Ukraine is a secondary goal for Donald Trump, who seeks to secure access to Ukraine's rare earth metals. The US will likely favor Ukraine to secure the deal, but a permanent peace requires NATO membership and US troops on the ground.
Why Russia Can NEVER Use a Nuclear Weapon
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot effectively use nuclear weapons because actual use guarantees destruction and internal fail-safes prevent a single leader from ordering them. Ignoring Russian nuclear threats creates a more dangerous world by signaling that dictators can use nukes without checks.
Could Russia Actually Lose Kaliningrad?
Paul J. Warburg
Kaliningrad's growing cultural disconnect and reduced strategic value make secession more likely despite Moscow's fears. If Kaliningrad separates, it is likely to become an independent Baltic state focused on technology.
Russia is Caught in an Unemployment ‘Death Spiral’
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's wage growth is inherently unsustainable, and therefore, actually, very bad news for the average Russian. In the long term, unemployment will probably skyrocket.
Russia’s Banks Are Literally Running Out of Money
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is funding its war by forcing banks to lend money that will never be repaid, creating a financial trap. Putin realizes Russia's position is hopeless no matter what, so he is trying to win the war no matter the cost.
January 2025 · 4
The REAL Reason Putin is So Paranoid Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Assassinating Vladimir Putin risks creating a worse global conflict without guaranteeing peace for Ukraine. Ending the war requires courageous political leadership rather than assassination attempts.
The TRUTH About Russia's Shadow Fleet That Most People Miss
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine and the West are deliberately keeping Russian energy on the market through a price cap to prevent global instability and maintain political support. The strategy aims to weaken Russia long-term by strengthening allies like India while avoiding actions that could destabilize the region or lose Western backing.
The Only REAL Way to Stop the War in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
Diplomacy cannot ultimately end the war in Ukraine because it does not resolve the severe disagreement forcing combat between the two nations. The only way to defeat Russia is to do just that: to defeat Russia.
Russia’s Pipeline Problem is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia lost its leverage over Moldova and Transnistria when it cut off gas supplies. The West is winning in every important way, even if that victory isn't immediately apparent.
November 2024 · 4
What everyone is getting wrong about Russia's economy
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is running out of money because its war chest was frozen and the war lasted too long. Western nations must maintain financial pressure so the Putin regime faces consequences.
The U.S. Finally Unlocked Long Range Weapons for Ukraine - Here’s how it will change the war
Paul J. Warburg
The U.S. unlocking long-range weapons for Ukraine removes Russia's only remaining tactical advantage and creates a low-risk window for escalation before the new president takes office. The timing allows Ukraine to disrupt Russian troop massing while minimizing escalation risk, and it encourages other major nations to contribute their resources.
What you’re not being told about Trump and Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
The prevailing theory that Trump can end the war by leveraging US aid is flawed because Ukraine has already proven it can fight without significant US assistance. Ukraine will not back down just because aid decreases, and US withdrawal might actually unlock options for a Ukrainian victory.
The hidden move that proves Putin's getting desperate
Paul J. Warburg
Putin cares deeply about public opinion because he fears his own people might overthrow him if they suffer too much. Just because Putin doesn't need his people's vote doesn't mean he doesn't fear what they think.
October 2024 · 7
Russia's Attrition Problem is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine at its core is a war of attrition where the side that can outlast the other wins. Russia is currently losing the war from a nutritional standpoint and cannot sustain fighting much longer than about a year after current pushes.
How the West Can GUARANTEE a Ukrainian Victory Over Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The West can guarantee a Ukrainian victory over Russia if it continues to provide sufficient support. We must prove we are people of our word by continuing the fight because Ukraine gave up its nuclear missiles in exchange for security guarantees.
Russia is losing the drone war. Here’s why that matters.
Paul J. Warburg
Ukrainian drone strikes weaken Russia's nuclear credibility and threaten its defense production. We should probably all be paying a lot more attention to Ukrainian drone strikes.
What you're not being told about Russia's economy
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's economy is fundamentally weak because it must print money to cover a deficit, causing inflation and devaluing the ruble. Long story short, Russia is running out of money.
What Everyone is Getting Wrong About North Korean Soldiers in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea sends soldiers to gain resources and show commitment, not to learn combat tactics. People must understand how North Korean society is different from Western society to call Putin's bluff.
Russia's Demographic Crisis is a Ticking Time Bomb
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's demographic crisis is a ticking time bomb caused by collapsing population and low birth rates. Russia has already lost and is continuing to lose in absolute terms due to this worsening demographic crisis.
Vladimir Putin Killed My Cousin
Paul J. Warburg
An American soldier with deep respect for Russian culture died fighting against Vladimir Putin after witnessing war crimes. There are people on every side of the political fence in America who support Ukraine.
June 2024 · 2
Russia's Navy Has a MASSIVE Problem
Paul J. Warburg
A functional navy is perhaps the most important factor in whether or not a nation can project global power. Russia is slowly or quickly becoming irrelevant as a naval power, and that is eroding their ability as a nation to be a global influencer.
Why Ukraine REFUSES Peace With Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine refuses peace because Russia never honors agreements and commits atrocities. The West avoids funding total victory due to cost and geopolitical fears.
Drawing: photo Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, redrawn in our house style.