United States
country located primarily in North America
Named more than in passing in 72 episodes, from 3 April 2025 to 12 November 2026: Peter Zeihan 49 · Paul J. Warburg 23. Wikidata
2026 · 69 episodes
2025 · 3 episodes
November 2026 · 12
5:22
The Problem with the U.S. Power Grid
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. cannot unify its power grids soon because geography and local authority barriers prevent efficient long-distance transmission. Real progress requires adjacent jurisdictions to share resources before attempting national grid unification.
26:22
Russia Just Declared War on...Pizza?
Paul J. Warburg
This isn't a war about weapons. It's not a war about territory.
25:17
Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin has a use-them-while-you've-got-them mentality. Once the war in Ukraine is over, it's going to seem like small cookies compared to what happens to Russia over the ensuing decades and generations.
6:05
A New Explosive Threat in the Persian Gulf
Peter Zeihan
Conventional commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf is probably going to collapse because there is no good defense against speedboat attacks. The cost for the civilian shipping sector to try to cope with this is immense and will absolutely change the cost structure of how shipping happens.
25:25
Russian Soldiers are Suddenly Being Wiped Out Like Never Before
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is experiencing a catastrophic decline where casualty rates exceed recruitment and birth rates, leading to societal collapse. The war has eliminated any hope for Russia's demographic recovery and is running its society into the ground.
6:13
Bolsonaro Flees Brazil Following Election Loss
Peter Zeihan
The blood feud between Lula and the Bolsonaros is causing a top-to-bottom fissure in Brazil's state capacity. No matter how the political conflict resolves, it will matter to a great number of people including those in the United States.
+4
22:07
Russia Just Suffered the Ultimate Humiliation
Paul J. Warburg
One of the telltale signs that somebody is broke and doing everything they can to avoid bankruptcy is when they start to sell off everything they own just to meet their monthly obligations. We'll keep watching how these trends go and where they ultimately lead.
4:58
Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots
Peter Zeihan
If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes. That's what's going on in Russia right now with the Ukraine war.
6:13
What's Behind the French Protests
Peter Zeihan
The violence in France is caused by budget deficits and anarchist movements, not illegal migrants. Everyone out there is trying to beat their own ideological drum and point at France and say, C, C, C, but for most of them, the facts don't match the ideology.
4:11
France and the UK Choose the Nuclear Option
Peter Zeihan
The UK and France are pursuing nuclear weapons to prevent Germany from feeling secure enough to build its own deterrent. Allowing Germany to develop nukes would recreate the dangerous pressure cooker of 19th-century Europe.
5:38
The Paris Accords Can't Stop Climate Change
Peter Zeihan
The Paris Accords cannot stop climate change because they lack necessary funding and rely on a globalized system that is now breaking down. By the end of the century, we need to be starting to consider things like five and maybe even six.
4:56
El Salvador Invades Haiti with Help from the Trump Administration?
Peter Zeihan
El Salvador in general, does not have any military capability. Get ready for the worst.
October 2026 · 25
21:13
Ukraine Had an INCREDIBLE Night
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has demonstrated it can independently stop Russian attacks and defy US political pressure regarding energy prices. Ukraine is willing to defy the United States and prove that Trump lacks control over energy prices just before the midterms.
6:11
Trump Might Be Onto Something with Data Center Energy
Peter Zeihan
The proposal indicates significant changes are coming if pushed forward. The proposal is a potential solution to current problems but faces serious political hurdles.
26:15
Ukraine’s Massive Advantage Over Russia is Now Impossible to Ignore
Paul J. Warburg
Modern democracies win wars and long-term competition because market incentives drive continuous innovation, while dictatorships stagnate due to fear of success. The future belongs to societies where youth are incentivized to build technology that solves problems rather than just seeking military salaries.
3:00
The Turn: Demographics Meet Deglobalization
Peter Zeihan
The United States will surrender its position in the Eastern Hemisphere before the end of the Trump administration. Everyone will soon notice major disruptions in agriculture due to these changing global mechanics.
26:41
Ukraine’s D-Day May Be Coming Soon
Paul J. Warburg
Sometimes, when things seem hopeless, all you have to do is hold on and actually have courage long enough for the enemy to break themselves against their own impatience. Personally, I see that as the most likely way this war ends through political change within Russia.
25:39
China Just Lost Its Best Chokehold On The Global Economy
Paul J. Warburg
China's long-term strategic hold on the global economy through rare earth metals is ending because its heavy rare earth supply is finite while other nations have untapped reserves. The geopolitical landscape is reversing as China faces a genuine supply shortage of heavy rare earths while the world develops alternatives.
13:20
Data Centers: A Necessary Evil...Kinda
Peter Zeihan
Data centers are necessary for modern economic function because removing them would force a return to manual paper-based systems resulting in significantly lower standards of living. While data centers have negative effects like high energy use, eliminating them would condemn millions to low-value jobs and drastically reduce personal incomes.
20:15
Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War
Paul J. Warburg
Pro-Russian pressure from the United States actually hurts the Russians far more than the Ukrainians, and it really does seem that Russia can't possibly do anything to win the war. It is encouraging to know that Ukraine's strategy is definitely, definitely working.
3:46
Oil Pricing Is Going Crazy
Peter Zeihan
A severe break in the security environment allows the market to function differently. By the time we get to the end of the year, unless something is resolved politically, we're going to be looking at outright breaks in supply lines.
22:01
Russia’s Tech Companies Just Entered Full Panic Mode
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is facing a permanent, systemic crisis in its cloud infrastructure that will worsen over time due to destroyed capacity and lack of global redundancy. The true scale of the damage remains hidden because both cloud companies and the Russian government suppress negative information to protect their interests.
6:18
The Great Oil Split Has Begun
Peter Zeihan
The United States has a functional ceiling on its energy prices of around $70 while Europe and Asia pay double or triple that amount due to transport disruptions. This fragmented market state is going to be the norm for the bulk of the next 20 years.
5:48
Ground Drones Hit the Frontlines in Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The emergence of ground drones makes it very difficult for any sort of projection-based military to push force somewhere else. We're not going to figure that out in six months.
19:38
China Just Got Some Terrible News
Paul J. Warburg
China is afraid of losing Western markets and will not use coercion tactics that threaten its economic survival. Today, China, which traditionally has been more adversarial, finally got a really good check put in place on them.
5:53
Should the U.S. Military Invade Yemen?
Peter Zeihan
The United States faces an ugly choice between a difficult military occupation or accepting Iranian control over Gulf energy. A military solution is too involved to recommend, leaving the only viable option as a political deal with Iran.
5:44
Does China Have a Succession Plan
Peter Zeihan
If Xi dies tomorrow, there simply isn't an institution, much less a personality, who could potentially step forward and take over his role. The best case scenario is that Xi becomes the new Yeltsin or Brezhnev and remains just alive enough that he can be propped up in a chair and wave to the crowd every once in a while while everything slowly disintegrates around him.
6:27
The French Protests Were Inevitable
Peter Zeihan
France must cut social programs because its centralized system extracted resources from colonies to fund a welfare state that can no longer be sustained. The protests are inevitable because students and workers face a system custom designed to not cut spending that now has no money.
33:13
Why I’m Not Worried About Ukraine Losing U.S. Support
Paul J. Warburg
There are absolutely zero concerns that withdrawing U.S. support will create a catastrophe for Ukraine because the U.S. is not providing decisive aid. Public opinion creates a ceiling on how bad things can get, limiting U.S. actions against Ukraine.
3:41
China Gets a New Base in Southeast Asia
Peter Zeihan
China is building a self-sufficient base in Laos to project power across Southeast Asia despite the high risk of conflict with Thailand. Thailand represents a significant strategic hurdle because it is the most capable country in the region with a history of resisting foreign control.
18:56
Ukraine Just Sent Russia Back to the Stone Age
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is definitely now going to get left behind even further than they already were. In either case, Russia's data center problem is massive, and it's quickly growing tendrils into other areas that Russia likely never anticipated.
3:02
How Diesel Could Shape the Ukraine War
Peter Zeihan
If we actually go a six-month period or more where the Russians don't have enough fuel to keep their system operational from a military point of view, then we really have entered a new phase in this conflict. With the United States possibly about to remove the last remaining large supply of the global standards, that leaves the Russians completely high and dry.
5:39
What’s Next for Iraq?
Peter Zeihan
The withdrawal of US troops leaves Iraq unstable, risking Iranian dominance in the south or a return to Sunni rule. Peace in the region is unlikely as history suggests Sunnis will rise again if the system becomes unmoored.
5:50
Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit?
Peter Zeihan
Putin may use the G20 summit to announce an invasion of a NATO country, forcing Trump to choose between Russia and the alliance. The outcome will determine if the US alliance completely shatters or remains intact.
+1
3:35
What Happens When Fossil Water Runs Out?
Peter Zeihan
Three regions will cease to be agriculturally producing zones within the next 20 to 30 years. The problem is honestly drilling for water in these zones.
5:44
Building Out the Power Grid: Large Power Transformers
Peter Zeihan
The United States cannot expand its grid by 50% to support reindustrialization because it lacks domestic large transformer production and faces severe permitting delays. Without significant changes in federal policy and domestic manufacturing, the US will fail to maintain its grid or reindustrialize.
7:56
How To Ban Diesel Exports
Peter Zeihan
Export bans without infrastructure changes create oversaturation that reduces domestic energy security. The conversation is misplaced until distribution systems are fixed alongside any bans.
September 2026 · 25
33:31
Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is unlikely to attack NATO because doing so would open a massive new front while they are already failing in Ukraine. While we should prepare in case we're wrong, we should not fear a Russian attack because it's unlikely to happen.
5:02
U.S. Sanctions on Iran Take a New Approach
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. aims to make life difficult for the Iranian population so they will rebel and overthrow the government. Two arrogant and increasingly isolated men are pretending that they know what's going on.
3:31
The AI Race: U.S. vs. China
Peter Zeihan
China cannot compete in AI because export restrictions prevent them from building the necessary high-end hardware. The structural issues regarding data and ethics are irrelevant because the race comes down to hardware access.
6:07
The Diesel Shortage Hits America
Peter Zeihan
Diesel shortages will reverberate through the entire American economy for months. The US faces guaranteed transport problems affecting everything moved throughout the country for at least the next 18 months.
37:02
Why Putin Can NEVER Use a Nuclear Weapon
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot credibly threaten nuclear war because its arsenal is likely non-functional and launching would destroy the regime. The ultimate cost of operating one of the most corrupt countries on Earth is that everything crashes in on itself.
5:48
The Venezuela Oil Deal Is Just the Start
Peter Zeihan
The oil deals represent only the beginning of a potential renaissance, not an immediate turnaround. The current situation is a step in the right direction, but we must not get too crazy or ahead of ourselves.
3:58
My Two Cents on the AI Debate
Peter Zeihan
The current debate over AI safety is actually a positive sign of open conversation. The current debate does not need to bear fruit until the 2040s when supply chains are rebuilt.
+1
5:47
The Geography of… Bear Attacks
Peter Zeihan
Japan has seen hundreds of bear attacks this year due to demographic shifts and aggressive species. American black bears are scavengers scared by noise, while Asian bears view humans as intruders.
18:54
Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is winning the war of attrition by using cheap, scalable drone swarms to overwhelm Russia's defenses, while Russia is forced into an unsustainable cycle of expensive missiles and depleted air defense systems. As Russia runs out of air defenses and concentrates them in Moscow, Ukraine will soon be able to strike targets across the Russian Arctic, Siberia, and Far East.
5:08
China's Hold on Congolese Cobalt
Peter Zeihan
We must learn to get by with less because business as usual for tech advancement will simply not fly. More likely, the business as usual of tech advancement that we become used to is simply not going to fly.
3:40
Prize Courts Revived for Iran Seizures
Peter Zeihan
The prize court system is being set up in the southern district which includes Houston. This could mean that the rest of this year is going to get really interesting.
29:51
China's Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
The Chinese government's strict population controls created a self-reinforcing collapse where people now refuse to have children. China is likely hiding the true scale of its population decline and may eventually resort to war or internal collapse.
4:44
Can AI-Driven Robots Save Japan?
Peter Zeihan
Japan must develop autonomous robots because it cannot import labor due to racism and faces a massive workforce shortage. The project looks pretty promising as it merges long-term Japanese automation efforts with new frontier technology.
18:11
Ukraine Just Sparked a Panic in the Russian Arctic
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's strategy of using its massive size as a defensive advantage is now obsolete. Ukraine is unlocking the entire country, and that hunting season won't end until Russia ends its war.
4:57
The Democrats Are Screwed, Too
Peter Zeihan
The Democrats' broad coalition strategy includes opposing factions that prevent policy discussion and have fractured their traditional vote banks. The Democrats face a hung Congress where the president cannot be impeached, resulting in another two years of political dysfunction.
+1
11:31
What Does Life After Donald Trump Look Like?
Peter Zeihan
Trump has destroyed the Republican Party's institutional capacity and mirrors the fragile personalist regimes of China and Russia. When these leaders leave, the result will be quick and complete collapse because governance is them.
+5
4:20
Back to the Glory Days of the Spice Trade
Peter Zeihan
The technologies of globalization are failing, and the system that has allowed the whole world to go wherever it wants and access any particle are breaking down. We're probably going to be going into a world where the single biggest impact is going to be a collapse in what we considered manufactured goods trade.
32:42
Something Very Strange is Happening to China’s Military
Paul J. Warburg
China is a paper tiger using propaganda to appear stronger than it actually is. Investing in cheap drones can overwhelm China's expensive, unproven military image.
3:04
Project Vault Doesn't Solve the Mineral Problem
Peter Zeihan
Project Vault fails to solve the mineral problem because most critical materials processing is done in China. Without diplomacy to secure resources from Canada, Australia, and Brazil, the initiative remains a rounding error.
3:59
Ukraine Is Shooting Fish in a Barrel
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine will stop Russia's significant oil export presence by destroying the non-reporting shadow fleet. The ports will eventually run out of storage facilities, cutting down production inland just as effectively as stopping the shadow fleet.
5:14
The End of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Peter Zeihan
Repeated usage is functionally ending the salt dome's useful lifespan. So either we have a new multi-billion dollar project authorized by Congress to establish an entirely new reserve, or the United States has to do something else in order to regulate markets.
5:27
Global Shipping Comes Under Attack
Peter Zeihan
No country can defend all eight major transit choke points simultaneously. No nation or coalition can keep global sea lanes safe anymore.
5:05
China’s Real Estate System Is Failing
Peter Zeihan
The Chinese government is now trying to get this money somewhere else. I've always found it very amusing of the people who want to get their money into China to make money when the people who are in China are desperate for any way to get the money out.
21:55
China’s Biggest Problem Just Got SO MUCH Worse
Paul J. Warburg
China's water shortage puts them at a structural disadvantage against AI competitors and increases their incentive to provoke water conflicts. China's only real solution is geopolitical, potentially involving damming rivers or bringing water from Russia.
5:29
Trade War Revival: Trump, Canada, and Tariffs
Peter Zeihan
The US cannot reindustrialize under current conditions because uncertainty prevents investment. We are farther away from clarity now than we were in January of 2025.
August 2026 · 7
17:00
Satellite Images Just Revealed Something Very Strange in North Korea
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea is essentially the Hunger Games in the real world. This is how empires and kingdoms have always worked.
3:04
Relocate or Move On from the Middle East
Peter Zeihan
The United States lacks a good defense for these systems because it cannot build enough interceptors to match Iranian drone production. Moving bases to Jordan or Israel fails because Iranian drone ranges are extending daily to cover these areas, leading to a broad-scale American withdrawal from the region.
28:31
Something Utterly Bizarre Just Happened in China
Paul J. Warburg
China's technological dominance masks a fundamental weakness caused by massive debt and a lack of domestic energy resources. In the net, in China, what we see is a house of cards that is reported on as if it were a house of steel.
6:04
The U.S. Chooses Favorites: North Korea over South Korea
Peter Zeihan
The United States is abandoning South Korea, forcing it to develop nuclear weapons and triggering a regional arms race. The strategic balance of peace in Northeast Asia is ending because South Korea will likely build a nuclear weapon.
4:49
The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits
Peter Zeihan
The United States cannot force Iran to keep Hormuz open, leading to its transformation into a toll system. Turning Hormuz into a toll system will formally or informally break over a century of international maritime law.
42:34
The U.S. National Debt Just Reached a Bleak Milestone
Paul J. Warburg
The U.S. debt is not a solvable problem because it funds the economy, and the real risk is inflation from printing money. We must focus on the complex system as a whole rather than just the symptoms like high debt numbers.
6:33
Moving Beyond the Patriot Missile
Peter Zeihan
The United States must overhaul its defense strategy because deglobalization and Ukrainian innovation render current advanced systems unsustainable. The US will soon stop delivering Patriots, accelerating global anti-ballistic missile technology research.
October 2025 · 1
10:50
The Most Violent Chapter of Israel and Palestine
Peter Zeihan
The current extreme violence is driven by a unique convergence of strategic emptiness, political incentives for war, and a broken information system. There is literally no place for the Gazans to go if they were to be relocated, so extreme violence will continue.
+3
April 2025 · 2
4:17
Auto Tariffs and the Art of Routine Vehicle Maintenance
Peter Zeihan
The new tariff policy will drive up vehicle costs significantly. The cumulative effect of these tariffs could easily see automobile costs going up by $10,000.
4:27
Half A Million Immigrants Get the Boot
Peter Zeihan
Rescinding legal status for half a million immigrants worsens the labor shortage and encourages future illegal migration. The next wave will definitely cross illegally and form an underclass in American society.